Predicting Innovation

 

To enable sustained organizational success, it is important that organizations continue to look towards the future.  This requires organizations to understand forces that can impact the future.  According to Desjardins (2018) there are several things that have the ability to impact the future technology, trade, population shifts, and the distribution of wealth are only a few of these influencers.

Throughout the years there have been many innovations that have been identified.  Some have actually come to fruition while others never gained traction.  For some of those that didn’t gain traction it may have been that they were ahead of their time.  In 1999 Bill Gates shared a prediction that in the future it would be common for all of us to have video feeds of our homes (Larkin, 2019).  In 1999 the idea of a smart home was seen as far-fetched.  Although the internet was in place in 1999 the development of wireless technology and high data speeds were still years off.  In addition, the availability of connected devices was still years away.

One of the forces that drove the success of the smart home was the development of mobile wireless 3G technology in 2001 (Perry, 2021).  3G technology began the phenomena of mobile applications on smart phones which then allowed all of us to control not only cameras remotely but to also control thermostats and other household appliances.  The development of 3G technology drove all of us to think bigger and to identify smart gadgets that could make our lives easier.  The technological advances did not stop at 3G but today 4G and 5G are available to most allowing even greater use of devices to streamline household activities.  Personally, I have not had a key to my house for many years but rather my house locks itself when I leave and unlocks when I get within a half a block of my home.

A second force that has driven the success of the smart home is cultural.  Today’s younger generation does not know a world without technology, so they are open and willing to try new applications of technology.  My five-year-old niece Charlee can use my smart phones as well if not better than I can.  In addition, technology allows the aging population to stay in their own homes longer (Chung, 2017).  The ability for an older person to be monitored remotely due to technology allows this population to maintain the independence they desire.

According to Markets and Markets (2021) the smart homes market will grow from $84.5 billion in 2021 to $138.9 billion in 2026.  In 1999 Bill Gates’ prediction of many homes having cameras may have seemed a stretch.  Today homes are equipped with not only cameras but several smart devices.  I would consider Bill Gates’ prediction a success. 

References

Chung, J. (2017). The role of culture in adopting smart home technologies.  Handbook of Smart Homes, Healthcare, and Well-Being. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01583-5_58

Desjardins, J. (2018, October 4). The 8 major forces shaping the future of the global economy. https://visualcapitalist.com/the-8-major-forces-shaping-the-future-of-the-global-economy

Larkin, B. (2019, October 7). 30 predictions in history that came true. https://bestlifeonline.com/historical-predictions/ 

Markets and Markets. (2021 September). Smart home market. https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/market-reports/smart-homes-and-assisted-living-advanced-technologies-and-global-market.121.html

Perry, T. (2021, November 17). The definitive history of smart home devices. https://www.smarthomepoint.com/history/

The Evolution of Forecasting

 

The objective of this discussion board is to compare and contrast the concepts of scenario planning and traditional forecasting.  The ability to assume some control over the future is the goal of scenario planning (Ali & Luther, 2020).  Scenario planning assists decision makers in understanding what could occur in the future and the potential options to address and mitigate the change.  This allows organizations to proactively define a playbook so that the organization is prepared to respond versus needing to react.  Scenario planning can also assist organizations in understanding and planning for future costs.  At the organization where I work, we do this wireless data capacity.  When we look five years out, we look at various data usage scenario that include everything from no change to an aggressive rate of the adoption of wireless home internet with the deployment of mmWave technology.  This allows us to run a number of budget scenarios but also to understand what would be required for tools to support and security to mitigate the potential risks.  One of the benefits of scenario planning is the amount of data that decision makers have at their disposal to assist them in making informed decisions.  A disadvantage is that conducting scenario planning is a massive effort and can take time away from running the business.  In addition, things can change very quickly that at times the payoff to the investment in scenario planning may not be there.

The utilization of forecasting using historical knowledge such as trends is known as traditional forecasting (Performance Canvas, 2018).  Compared to scenario planning where the organization may be looking several years out traditional forecasting tends to look out about one year.  So traditional forecasting does not account for large changes that could occur in the future due to technology, culture, or business needs.  Traditional forecasting also utilized historical trends to predict the future rather than running potential future scenarios.  This is a weakness of traditional forecasting as it has the potential to put an organization in a reactive mode.  Where I work, we do both we do strategic forecasting which focuses on future technology, security, and business scenarios that could impact us but then we also look at how things on trending utilizing past knowledge.  By focusing on both we are able to have a rich dialogue and define potential risks in our decision making.

Traditional forecasting and scenario planning both play keys roles in organizations.  Each of them has their advantages and disadvantages and it is important for organizations to recognize this when planning for the future.

Blog link:   An Engineer's Perspective (engineersperspective9.blogspot.com)

References

Ali, R. & Luther, D. (2020, May 14). Scenario planning:  Strategy, steps, and practical examples. https://www.netsuite.com/portal/business-benchmark-brainyard/industries/articles/cfo-central/scenario-planning.shtm./

Performance Canvas. (2018, August 1). Live forecasting vs traditional forecasting vs rolling forecasting. https://www.performancecanvas.com/live-vs-rolling-vs-traditional-forecasting/

Accidental Innovation Discoveries That Are Life Changing

 

Some of the most innovative ideas do not always come to be due to deliberate study or planning but rather come to be out of an error or accident.  In this individual paper two game changing ideas will be reviewed that came to be out of error or accident.  According to Drucker (2002) innovation is the ability for an entrepreneur to create new revenue streams either by a new means or enhancing an existing means.  Innovation often occurs due to market needs, demographic changes, new knowledge, process enhancements, or accident (Drucker, 2002).  The ideas reviewed here are definitely innovative, but they did not follow a traditional systematic process in being discovered but rather were invented by accident.  Regardless the impact of the innovation has influenced our culture.

Prior to Charles Goodyear’s accidental discovery rubber was used for a variety of things including pencil erasers. (Bellis, 2018).  The challenge with non-vulcanized rubber is that it did not hold up well in cold or hot weather.  In cold temperatures non vulcanized rubber would become brittle.  In hot weather non vulcanized rubber would become sticky.  Many inventors including Charles Goodyear worked to invent a more robust rubber compound.

Charles Goodyear was awarded a contract in 1834 to make rubber mail bags for the U.S. government.  Charles Goodyear noticed that the rubber mail bags did not function well in hot or cold temperatures.  Charles Goodyear began researching ways to make rubber more durable.  The discovery of vulcanized rubber which is the rubber used to make tires was discovered completely by accident. Charles Goodyear accidently turned off the light in his lab and spilled vials containing sulfur, lead and rubber on to a hot surface which then generated vulcanized rubber (Yonatan, 2017).  The process of vulcanizing rubber allows the rubber to become more resilient, not absorb water nor conduct electricity, and retain is shape (Martin’s Rubber Company, 2020).  Vulcanized rubber has the properties of being elastic, waterproof, and weatherproof (CEW, n.d.).  Charles Goodyear patented the idea in 1844 and although his patent was challenged in court he is recognized as the founder.  Although Charles Goodyear owned the patent, he did not become wealthy off of the patent nor did he start the Goodyear Tire Company.  The Goodyear Tire Company was named after him as he is known as the inventor of vulcanized rubber.

Vulcanized rubber was initially used to manufacture rubber bands which was patented in 1845 by Stephen Perry (Bellis, 2018).  In subsequent years the use of vulcanized rubber expanded into balloons, tires, rubber soled shoes, hoses, and rubber stamps.  Life today would be much different without Charles Goodyear’s accidental discovery of vulcanized rubber.

Although Goodyear spent years focused on finding a way to make rubber more durable his discovery occurred due to an accident rather than a cleverly designed experiment.  Goodyear’s focus on creating a more durable rubber product did not occur overnight but rather he had many setbacks including losing all of his money in the 1837 financial crisis (Somma, 2014).  But nothing deterred Goodyear from finding a solution to the rubber durability issue.  Even with the accidental discovery it still took Goodyear several years to perfect the specific chemical recipe for vulcanized rubber.

Charles Goodyear’s accidental discovery of vulcanized rubber has changed many aspects of our lives.  Vulcanized rubber is used in the tire industry.  Without this discovery people could still be driving cars and trucks with metal wheels.  This discovery enables people to connect through the ability to travel in cars, airplanes, and busses.  The discovery also has influenced construction of commercial buildings with many commercial buildings having rubber membraned roofs which keeps the weather elements out and internal building elements in.  Charles Goodyear’s accidental discovery drove innovation in several industries and continues today.

The desire for durable products drove Charles Goodyear to search for an answer.  His accidental discovery and the perfecting of his discovery drove others to identify additional uses for his vulcanized rubber.  Charles Goodyear was looking to improve the durability of mail bags but his discovery provided durability to other products such as pencil erasers and then future discoveries such as tires.  Although vulcanized rubber was an accidental discovery the use cases for the discovery were wide and culturally changing.  Culturally with this discovery people now expected durability and to not experience disruption in their products due to changing weather conditions.

A second accidental discovery is the implantable pacemaker.  The implantable pacemaker was discovered by Wilson Greatbatch in 1956 (Concordia University, 2021).  Wilson Greatbatch accidentally discovered the implantable pacemaker when he was working on a device to record the human heartbeat.  He accidentally placed the incorrect sized resistor in the circuit and he realized that the device was able to create electrical impulses that mimicked the human heart.  At the time of his discovery pacemakers were large machines that patients were tethered to at the hospital.  Wilson Greatbatch’s accidental discovery was small enough that it could be implanted in the chest of the patient and electrodes could be run to the patient’s heart.

Wilson Greatbatch teamed up with Dr. William Chardack and Dr. Andrew Gage to continue to perfect his accidental discovery (U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, 2018).  This team worked for two years to continue to perfect the accidental innovation.  With this smaller device patients no longer needed to remain hospitalized and tethered to a machine.  The device was first implanted into a dog and then in 1960 implanted into a human which extended the human’s life by eighteen months.

The implantable pacemaker has extended the lives of many.  The implantable pacemaker addresses the medical concern of an irregular heartbeat.  More than three million people have an implantable pacemaker (U. S. Department of Veterans Affairs, 2018).  In addition, Greatbatch went on to invent a corrosion free lithium battery for his implantable pacemakers (LEMELS N-MIT, n.d.).  Throughout Wilson Greatbatch’s career he continued to focus on inventions that could improve human sustainability including HIV treatments and renewable energy (Intellectual Ventures, 2016).  Wilson Greatbatch was a true inventor as when he passed away in 2011, he held three hundred and twenty-five patents.

The cultural forces to improve healthcare and to extend the lives of humans led to this

discovery.  Although the discovery was due to an error in resistor size the focus on improving the quality of human life drove it and enabled others to assist with perfecting the discovery.  Wilson Greatbatch’s desire to not let an error dissuade him also influenced the discovery as Greatbatch realized the error but also realized the potential in hearing what sounded like a regular heartbeat. 

In both cases with Goodyear and Greatbatch the errors could have led to nothing but their ability to keep their minds open to the possibility assisted them in making life changing discoveries.  In addition, they continued to focus on perfecting their product from the accidental version to the version that could change lives.  Both Goodyear and Greatbatch’s accidental discoveries have led to additional discoveries in the areas of use for rubber and in new medical devices such as the external heart.  The ability for both individuals to see greater than the failure or accident has allowed both of them to influence and improve the lives of many.  The culture of people worldwide has been changed by their accidents and mistakes.

References

Bellis, M. (2018, December 23). Vulcanized rubber. https://www.thoughtco.com/vulcanized-rubber-1991862

CEW. (n.d.). John Dunlop, charles goodyear, and the history of tires. https://www.cewheelsinc.com/john-dunlop-charles-goodyear-history-tires.

Concordia University Texas. (2021, May 18). 9 successful inventions made by accident. https://www.concordia.edu/blog/9-successful-inventions-made-by-accident.html

Drucker, P. F. (2002, August). The discipline of innovation. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2002/08/the-discipline-of-innovation?cm_sp=article_-links_-comment

Intellectual Ventures. (2016, November 8). The heartbeat of invention: How pacemaker creator Wilson greatbatch saved countless lives. https://www.intellectualventures.com/buzz/insights/the-heartbeat-of-invention-how-pacemaker-creator-wilson-greatbatch-saved-co/

LEMELS N-MIT. (n.d.). Wilson greatbatch:  The implantable cardiac pacemaker. https://lemelson.mit.edu/resources/wilson-greatbatch

Martin’s Rubber Company. (2020, January 27). What is vulcanized rubber used for. https://www.martins-rubber.co.uk/blog/what-is-vulcanised-rubber-used-for/

Somma, A. M. (2014, December 2014). Charles goodyear and the vulcanization of rubber. https://connecticuthistory.org/charles-goodyear-and-the-vulcanization-of-rubber/

U. S. Department of Veterans Affairs. (2018, August 2). The invention of the cardiac pacemaker. https://www.research.va.gov/research_in_action/the-invention-of-the-cardiac-pacemaker.cfm

Yonatan, R. (2017, December 4). 12 famous accidental innovations. https://getvoip.com/blog/2017/12-famous-accidental-innovations/

Group Decision Making Methods

 

To assist with making decisions on complex topics where all of the data may not be known or complete the Delphi technique is often used (Niederberger & Spranger, 2020).  The Delphi technique brings a diverse group of subject matter experts together through structured processes.  The Delphi technique utilizes a systematic questioning process in order to gather thoughts from the experts (CFI, n.d.). To gain consensus amongst such a diverse group is challenging so acceptable outcomes of utilizing the Delphi technique are 1) the ability to forecast the future, 2) an expanded view of the topic, and 3) develop an expert’s view (Niederberger & Spranger, 2020).  

Another group decision making method is the RAPID framework.  The RAPID framework assists organizations in making decision by driving accountability in the decision-making process (Daly, 2022).  The RAPID framework is a five-step process which includes the following 1) recommend a decision or action, 2) provide input to a recommendation, 3) decide – make the decision, 4) formally agree to a decision, and 5) Be accountable for performing a decision once made. To assist with making decisions on complex topics where all of the data may not be known or complete the Delphi technique is often used (Niederberger & Spranger, 2020).  

The nominal group technique is another group decision making method.  The nominal group technique requires everyone to provide their thoughts and opinions (Tiburca, 2020).  Once these are gathered the group discusses, fine tunes, and prioritizes.  The team is left with one or multiple solutions.

The Delphi technique gathers information through the use of surveys or questionnaires from anonymous experts in the area while the nominal group technique uses a moderator to gather thoughts and opinions from everyone which are then openly and thoroughly discussed (Directorpoint, n.d.).  Similarly, the Delphi technique can go through multiple rounds of questionnaires with each getting narrower in focus while with the nominal group technique there is dialogue around each idea in order to clarify the thought.  In both the Delphi and nominal group techniques the ideas are prioritized as more knowledge is gained around the ideas.

Both the Delphi technique and the RAPID technique should be utilized for complex decisions as they can not be executed quickly (Organizational Psychology, n.d.).  The RAPID technique also has clearly identified roles whereas the nominal group technique and Delphi technique do not.  The Delphi, nominal group technique, and the RAPID technique are all similar in that information is gathered from numerous people with a variety of perspectives prior to the decision being made.  Each of the methods discussed as its own advantages and disadvantages when choosing a group decision making technique it is important to understand the issue that needs to be answered in order to choose the best technique.

References

CFI. (n.d.). What is the delphi method. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/other/delphi-method

Daly, C. (2022, January 6). 5 effective group decision-making techniques. https://thoughtexchange.com/blog/group-decision-making-techniques

Directorpoint. (n.d.). Comparing delphi and ngt decision techniques. https://landing.directorpoint.com/blog/delphi-and-ngt-decision-techniques

Niederberger, M & Spranger, J. (2020, September 22). Delphi technique in health sciences: A map. Front: Public Health, 8(457). Doi:10.3389/fpubh.2020.0057

Organizational Psychology. (n.d.). 5 group decision-making techniques. https://organizationalpsychologydegrees.com/lists/5-group-decision-making-techniques

Tiburca, A. (2020, March). The ultimate guide to group decision making – techniques, tools, and strategies. https://www.airfocus.com/blog/guide-to-group-decision-making-techniques-tools/

Hi All

The topic for this post is think tanks.  Finding a definition for what think tanks do was a bit of a challenge.  Ruser (2018) shared that it is challenging to define what think tanks do and even the influence they may have on policymakers is not well known.  United Nations University (2015) shared that think tanks are responsible for driving change.  Think tanks accomplish this by bringing people together to share and argue ideas.  An output of a think tank could be a survey, policy changes, or research (Ritter, 2009).   

There are several methods that successful think tanks utilize.  This discussion board will focus on three methods.  One method that a think tank can use is known as “without walls.”  The “without walls” methodology focuses utilizing technology such as computers and conference calls to bring people together to exchange ideas (Whittenhauer, n.d.).  This methodology allows large numbers of diverse individuals to gather and exchange ideas without the requirement to be in the same location.  This method has the ability to allow many people to participate.  This method is also relatively low cost as the technology utilized is paid for by the individual rather than the think tank.

Think backward is another think tank method (Ally, 2019).  The think backward methods require the think tank to think of the end state of the product and then define an approach to get to that end state.  This method allows the think tank to define the ideal end product and then define steps to get there.  One benefit of this approach is that there are deliverables along the way, so the think tank has the ability to measure progress. 

Creating an internal incubation fund is another method used by think tanks (Ally, 2019).  The benefit of utilizing an internal incubation fund is that it allows individuals or groups of individuals to focus on ideas that otherwise may never have been funded or prioritized.  The internal incubation fund fosters innovation.  The one drawback to this approach is that time could be wasted on ideas that will never be actualized.

According to United Nations University (2015) one of the benefits of a think tank is that think tanks provide a safe space for people to share and argue their ideas while having the opportunity to learn.  Think tanks also have the opportunity to shape research and policy.  Probably the biggest benefit of a think tank are the new ideas that are generated (Islam, 2018). 

References

Aly, O. (2019, July 6). Think tank methods. https://thinkandknowledgetank.home.blog/2019/07/06/think-tank-methods6/

Islam, M. (2018). The role of think tanks in social policy-making: The Bangladesh perspective. Journal of International Business and Management, 1(1), 1-13.

Ritter, W. (2009, October). The role of think tanks: Are think tanks an indicator for societal progress. https://www.oecd.org/site/progresskorea/43596145.pdf

Ruser, A. (2018). What to think about think tanks: Towards a conceptual framework of strategic think tank behaviour. International Journal of Politics, Culture, and Society, 31(2), 179-192. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10767-018-9278-x

United Nations University. (2015, March 17). What are think tanks good for. https://cpr.unu.edu/publications/articles/what-are-think-tanks-good-for.html

Whittenhauer, K. (n.d.). Effective think tanks. https://classrom.synonym.com/effective-think-tank-methods-5728092.html

 

With a worldwide digital economy comes the need to be able to make data driven decision quickly in order to remain competitive.  The need for improved speed in decision making is driving the need for data sciences and the development of artificial intelligence.  Artificial intelligence is the ability to utilize complex algorithms and machine learning in order to transform vast volumes of data into knowledge (GlobalNewswire, 2022).  With the availability of technology organizations no longer have the ability to manually work through the data due to the volume but rather organizations need to utilize the data science technology tools to gain new insights into their marketplace that will support data driven decisions.

The transition to data driven decision making requires the use of technology but there are many steps that organizations need to consider prior to jumping on the artificial intelligence band wagon.  NERCOMP (2022, March 14-16) suggests that organizations first need to understand what data they have available to them.  By understanding the data available organizations will be able to define the questions they will be able answer through the use of the data.

The competitive nature of a worldwide economy influences the need for the use of technology such as artificial intelligence to assist with decision making.  Organizations can no longer believe that they are only competing against the store across the street.  An example of this need is Amazon.  Today I can order groceries through Amazon and have them delivered anywhere from within two hours to a couple of days.  This has driven the need for local grocers such as Kroger and Publix to offer delivery services.  Amazon, Kroger, and Publix all need to be able to make data driven decision such as what if my customers churn if I don’t offer delivery, what is my breakeven point, and what level of discounts should I provide in order to drive sales.

Another influence on acceptance of artificial intelligence is cultural.  According to NMC Horizon Report (2017) artificial intelligence allows computer technology to simulate human perceptions, learning, and decision-making ability.    Organizations and employees are more comfortable today leveraging technology to automate more activities.  Activities that are repetitive or considered toil are often automated so that associates have the ability to perform higher value activities.  In addition, there are many in the population that have not experienced a world with minimal technology so the comfort level with utilizing technology such as artificial intelligence has grown. 

References

GlobalNewswire. (2022, March 11). Global Artificial Intelligence (ai) in drug discovery market report 2021:  Rising industrial partnerships and collaborations driving gowth – forecast to 2029. https://www.globalnewswire.com/new-release/2022/03/11/2401584/0/global-artificial-intelligence-ai-in-drug-discovery-market-report-2021-rising-industrial-partnerships-and-collaboration-driving-growth-forecast-to-2029.html

NERCOMP. (2022, March 14-16). Do you have a data driven dashboard: Leveraging the power of data driven decision making. Do You Have a Data Dashboard? Leveraging the Power of Data-Driven Decision-making | EDUCAUSE

NMC Horizon Report Higher Education Edition. (2017). Artificial intelligence time to adoption: Four to five years. 2017horizonreporthe.pdf (educause.edu)

 

Hi, my name is Lori D and I am an Engineering Executive at the fourth largest wireless carrier by day and a scholar practitioner by night.  I am currently a doctoral student in Computer Science at Colorado Technical University.  When I began my doctoral journey, I was focused on improving my educational pedigree but I have found that I really get energized by having the opportunity to learn and then share ideas with others on the same doctoral journey.

Currently I am in a class focused on the future and innovation.  Most recently we were practicing being a futurist.  I found this topic quite interesting as it compliments my engineering focus.  Futurists are focused on coming up with ideas for things that we may see or do in the future whereas an Engineer is responsible for bringing these ideas to life. 

In this blog I would like to share my ideas on the future and innovation from the perspective of an Engineer.  I will share my thoughts on what it will take to bring innovations to life.  What are the things that need to be considered in bringing the innovation to life will be included in my blog.  I look forward to sharing my thoughts with you in future posts.

Here’s to bringing dreams to life together.

Lori D.