Predicting Innovation

 

To enable sustained organizational success, it is important that organizations continue to look towards the future.  This requires organizations to understand forces that can impact the future.  According to Desjardins (2018) there are several things that have the ability to impact the future technology, trade, population shifts, and the distribution of wealth are only a few of these influencers.

Throughout the years there have been many innovations that have been identified.  Some have actually come to fruition while others never gained traction.  For some of those that didn’t gain traction it may have been that they were ahead of their time.  In 1999 Bill Gates shared a prediction that in the future it would be common for all of us to have video feeds of our homes (Larkin, 2019).  In 1999 the idea of a smart home was seen as far-fetched.  Although the internet was in place in 1999 the development of wireless technology and high data speeds were still years off.  In addition, the availability of connected devices was still years away.

One of the forces that drove the success of the smart home was the development of mobile wireless 3G technology in 2001 (Perry, 2021).  3G technology began the phenomena of mobile applications on smart phones which then allowed all of us to control not only cameras remotely but to also control thermostats and other household appliances.  The development of 3G technology drove all of us to think bigger and to identify smart gadgets that could make our lives easier.  The technological advances did not stop at 3G but today 4G and 5G are available to most allowing even greater use of devices to streamline household activities.  Personally, I have not had a key to my house for many years but rather my house locks itself when I leave and unlocks when I get within a half a block of my home.

A second force that has driven the success of the smart home is cultural.  Today’s younger generation does not know a world without technology, so they are open and willing to try new applications of technology.  My five-year-old niece Charlee can use my smart phones as well if not better than I can.  In addition, technology allows the aging population to stay in their own homes longer (Chung, 2017).  The ability for an older person to be monitored remotely due to technology allows this population to maintain the independence they desire.

According to Markets and Markets (2021) the smart homes market will grow from $84.5 billion in 2021 to $138.9 billion in 2026.  In 1999 Bill Gates’ prediction of many homes having cameras may have seemed a stretch.  Today homes are equipped with not only cameras but several smart devices.  I would consider Bill Gates’ prediction a success. 

References

Chung, J. (2017). The role of culture in adopting smart home technologies.  Handbook of Smart Homes, Healthcare, and Well-Being. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01583-5_58

Desjardins, J. (2018, October 4). The 8 major forces shaping the future of the global economy. https://visualcapitalist.com/the-8-major-forces-shaping-the-future-of-the-global-economy

Larkin, B. (2019, October 7). 30 predictions in history that came true. https://bestlifeonline.com/historical-predictions/ 

Markets and Markets. (2021 September). Smart home market. https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/market-reports/smart-homes-and-assisted-living-advanced-technologies-and-global-market.121.html

Perry, T. (2021, November 17). The definitive history of smart home devices. https://www.smarthomepoint.com/history/