The Value of Scenario-Based Planning

 

The purpose of this individual paper will be to review and discuss scenario-based planning.  The paper will begin by reviewing an organization that did not do proper scenario-based planning and suffered the repercussion.  Scenario based planning is when an organization will brainstorm, analyze, and plan for various scenarios of the future (Accenture, 2016).  Scenario-based planning allows organizations to look forward into the future as they complete their organizational planning.  The benefit of scenario-based planning is that an organization’s executives have the ability to understand an assortment of scenarios for their organization and enable better decision making (Ali & Luther, 2020).  By completing scenario-based planning organizations and their executive are able to proactively plan and not find themselves in a reactionary position as the future for their organization unfolds.

One organization that fell victim to the lack of scenario-based planning is Research in Motion (RIM) or better known as Blackberry.  Blackberry was one of the first smartphones and at one point in time held a forty-three percent market share in the United States and a twenty percent market share globally (Appolonia et. al., 2022).  RIM introduced a two-way paging device in the mid 1990’s which had a small keyboard.  RIM eventually added organizing capabilities similar to the popular PalmPilont (Loop, 2022).  RIM continued to innovate and added email capabilities and instant messaging to the Blackberry device.  I remember getting my first Blackberry in the early 2000’s and at that point I truly believed I had made it in the business world.  Anyone and everyone working in business had a Blackberry.  At the time it was hard to imagine a day without a Blackberry.

The 1990’s and early 2000’s were a great time for technology companies.  Blackberry was one of these.  Technology was growing at an accelerated pace and RIM took advantage of the time by developing a product that organizations were looking for to drive efficiency and effectiveness in their organizations.  RIM did a great job of utilizing scenario-based planning in their early days.  This is demonstrated through their evolution of the one-way pager to a two-way pager with a full keyboard which drove efficiency as now those with a pager could quickly respond to a need.  The individual no longer needed to find a phone in order to respond.  In addition, RIM took advantage of the need for an organization’s associates to understand their calendar when away from their computer and built in a calendar and task functionality into their device.  What most likely made the Blackberry indispensable was the addition of the email functionality.  RIM made this decision when email was still considered a relatively new technology (Loop, 2022).  Unfortunately for an organization like RIM that was so skilled at scenario planning in the organization’s early days they stopped scenario-based planning which drove them to stall out on the innovation front.  The graph below demonstrates the rise and fall of RIM stock (Luo, 2018).

Figure 1 RIM Stock

In 2007 Apple launched its first iPhone.  Apple’s plan was simple.  The plan was to build an entire lifestyle around their iPhone.  Whereas the Blackberry focused on business customers the iPhone was meant for everyone.  Apple did this by incorporating their iPod functionality into a phone that also had the Blackberry features such as email and messaging.  Apple created a store so that various applications could be added to their device whether it be gaming, music, etc.  This allowed iPhone users to customize their experience with the iPhone.  Apple also re-envisioned the device so that the majority of the device was a screen rather than a keyboard which was the majority of the Blackberry device.  Blackberry tried to mimic the iPhone touchscreen but was unsuccessful in launching a touchscreen that worked as well as the iPhone’s.  By this time Apple and android manufactures had grabbed the hearts of the former Blackberry users and expanded the market from business to include smartphones for everyone.  The graph below demonstrates the rise of Apple stock with the launch of the iPhone (Yarow, 2011).

Figure 2: Apple Stock

In not conducting scenario-based planning Blackberry missed a few key items.  Blackberry missed the opportunity to envision a day where smartphones would be in everyone’s hands.  Blackberry missed envisioning that everyone from teenagers to soccer moms to grandparents would crave a device that would simplify their life by containing not only business functionality but also a way to listen to music, take pictures, play games, and organize life.  Blackberry was also very invested in their QWERTY keyboard which did not allow them to envision a future where a touchscreen could be used instead. 

The fact that RIM did not conduct scenario-based planning stalled their innovation and organizational growth.  In the beginning RIM was very innovative but with success they forgot to dream big.  RIM missed the opportunity to expand who and how the device could be used.  If RIM had conducted scenario based planned RIM would not have been placed in a position to react to what the iPhone had introduced to mobile device users.

Organizations can utilize scenario-based planning to drive innovation.  Although it is quite easy for an organization to slip into the forecasting model when experiencing great success organization must fight the ease of doing so.  People are often interested in the next best thing especially if it allows one to become more effective or efficient.  This is one of the lenses that organizations can utilize when conducting scenario-based planning.  When enhancing the product or service how can the product or service drive greater efficiency and effectiveness?  Organizations can also look at how the use of their product can influence their customers from a formal and informal means.  This was demonstrated in the Blackberry versus iPhone war.  Blackberry was focused on work transactions which are very defined and formal.  Apple expanded their use to include the informal by including the ability to listen to music, take personal pictures, and play games.  Apple also opened up the use cases to not only those defined by Apple but also to allow for other customer focused use cases through the use of their app store.

With the launch of the Blackberry device came a change in the social landscape.  Everyone wanted to have a Blackberry.  Having a Blackberry demonstrated personal and professional success.  When the iPhone came along the social landscape was further expanded in that having an iPhone also demonstrated that you were an adopter of technology.  That as an iPhone user you had the latest and greatest technology in your pocket.  This was demonstrated through the long lines that were seen at Apple stores with the launch of a new device.  People have been known to get in line days before the launch of a new iPhone.

Scenario based planning takes time and discipline for organizations to conduct.  Through the Blackberry example the scenario-based planning is not only required for start ups, but needs to continue through organizational success as scenario-based planning allows organizations to continue to innovate which keeps their products fresh.  As long as technology continues to evolve individuals will crave the ability to utilize new technology in an effort to simplify their lives.

References

Accenture. (2016, April 22). Scenario-based planning:  Exploring the best chance on success. https://www.accenture.com/nl-en/blogs/insights/scenario-based-planning-the-best-chance-on-success

Ali, R. & Luther, D. (2020, May 14). Scenario planning:  Strategy, steps, and practical examples. https://www.netsuite.com/portal/business-benchmark-brainyard/industries/articles/cfon-central/scenario-planning.shtml

Appolonia, A., Nixdorf, K., and Leslie, R. (2022, January 14).  How blackberry went from controlling the smartphone market to a phone of the past. https://www.businessinsider.com/blackberry-smartphone-rise-fall-mobile-failure-innovate-2019

Loop, E. (2022, January 27). The extraordinary rise and fall of blackberry. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/business/the-extraordinary-rise-and-fall-of-blackberry

Luo, J. (2018, February 1). The rise and fall (rise again?) of blackberry. https://digial.hbs.edu/platform-digit/submission/the-rise-and-fall-and-rise-again-of-blackberry/

Yarow, J. (2011, October 14). Chart of the day: Apple’s stock’s rise since the iphone. https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-stock-2011-10